It’s the beginning of May, which means that the moment every gambler waits for is upon us...The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports. That’s right, two-leggers, the Kentucky Derby is here, and someone’s gotta win it...so you may as well make a bet, right? In this article, the first in a series, I will provide capsule summaries of each of the Derby hopefuls, along with some analysis of their chances to take home the roses on Saturday.

Horse (Jockey, Trainer, Graded Stakes Earnings, Top Beyer Speed Figure)

Afleet Alex (Jeremy Rose, Tim Ritchey, $1,245,000, 108):
From a historical standpoint, there’s a lot in Alex’s corner. Sure, he was beaten in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile…but he was the recipient of a TERRIBLE ride from Rose, and we can’t forget the trend: No BC Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby. An interesting trend to watch: Last year, the Derby trifecta was made up of the only three horses in the field who had run three races that earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. (Fourth-place Limehouse ran two triple-digit races and a 99.) This year, Alex is the only horse that qualifies under those standards.

Pros: With the exception of the Rebel Stakes (his poor performance there may have been caused by a lung infection), Alex has never crossed the wire more than ¾ of a length behind the winner.

Cons: Ritchey has never sent a horse to the Derby before…and while that worked out alright for John Servis and Smarty last year, can we expect it to happen again? Alex’s five-mile training day is twice what anyone else is doing…inexperience may be the killer here.

Wilko (Corey Nakatani, Craig Dollase, $1,004,575, 98):
When Wilko ran third in the Hollywood Juvenile, his first start after the Breeders’ Cup win, I was shocked that he managed to do even that well. The same goes for his performance in the Santa Anita Derby (third behind an absolutely pitiful field). This horse just doesn’t seem to be fast enough to win it all, when it all comes down to it.

Pros: Well, he did win a little race called the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Cons: Of course, no BC Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby. Also, since 1993, only two horses (Sea Hero in 1993, Funny Cide in 2003) have won the Derby without posting a 100+ Beyer prior to the race.

High Fly (Jerry Bailey, Nick Zito, $796,500, 102):
He’s beaten some of this year’s best (although this year, I hesitate to use the term "best"), he’s put up respectable Beyers, and he’s trained by the hottest thing on a racetrack this side of Diane Nelson. Five wins in six starts is plenty respectable (with the lone loss being a two-length defeat in the Holy Bull where an awful ride cost him AT LEAST five lengths), and the Beyer numbers are right where they should be. If Bailey can time his charge right (and that’s always a question with Bailey), he’s got as good a chance as anyone.

Pros: He’s consistently moved up in class, and won at every possible level.

Cons: Does Zito really have the time to spend training him, with four other contenders?

Consolidator (Rafael Bejarano, D. Wayne Lukas, $632,250, 105):
When Consolidator’s on, he’s REALLY on. When he’s not…well, did you SEE the Blue Grass? He’s not a good gate horse, and he’s really not enough of a closer to make up for it if something goes wrong. Three wins from ten starts is somewhat worrisome…but oh, what a nice three wins they were. Consolidator doesn’t exactly stand out…but he’s pretty hard to count out.

Pros: If he runs to his San Felipe form, he’ll be right there.

Cons: If he runs to his Blue Grass form, the race following the Derby will be delayed as we wait for him to finish.

Bellamy Road (Javier Castellano, Nick Zito, $570,000, 120):
Yes, that says 120. To put that in perspective…Silver Charm’s Kentucky Cup from his four-year-old season is the only time in the past twelve years that a Derby winner has run a 120, at ANY point in their career. His 17 ½ length win in the Wood Memorial was downright freakish. If he can hold the lead for ten furlongs, rather than nine, he’s going to be very difficult to beat.

Pros: Watch the Wood replay. If you wouldn’t want to bet on him after that, then you’re not a bettor.

Cons: He’s owned by George Steinbrenner. Also, to run two great races back-to-back is not as easy as it looks.

Bandini (John Velasquez, Todd Pletcher, $525,000, 103):
Bandini is the Greg Maddux of this year’s crop. He doesn’t win "impressively", he’s not flashy…he just wins. Excepting his disastrous first start (and some horses just need a race), the only horse to beat him is High Fly in the Florida Derby…and Bandini gained on him in the stretch. Were that race 10 furlongs rather than 9, there’s no question Bandini would have won, just by how much. The problem, however, is that he’s NOT impressive, and he DOESN’T stand out. I’d have to see the odds before placing my cash on this one.

Pros: The clear-cut best horse for the debatable best trainer and jockey, you can’t argue that it’s anyone but the horse’s fault if he doesn’t win.

Cons: In the past 12 years, only Monarchos has broken his maiden at 3 and gone on to win the Derby.

High Limit (Ramon Dominguez, Bobby Frankel, $510,000, 105):
Flash in the pan, or "all flash, no cash"? That’s the hot topic when it comes to High Limit. Are his limits, in fact, high? His Louisiana derby certainly shows that. However, in the Blue Grass, not only could he not hold a lead, he couldn’t even get there. He’ll be one of the main early speed runners in a race filled with them…if he can hang on, which is quite possible, this could be our winner.

Pros: Can get out to a lead, that’s for sure.

Cons: Doesn’t seem to be able to rate his speed. Also, Bobby Frankel is a brilliant trainer 364 days a year, but the first Saturday in May seems to give him problems.

Flower Alley (Jorge Chavez, Todd Pletcher, $500,000, 95):
Sure, he won the Lane’s End. However, the last time the Derby winner came out of that race was 1992 (Lil E. Tee), back when it was still called the Spiral. He faded badly in the Arkansas, yet still finished second, although he was a good 8 lengths behind Afleet Alex. I just don’t see it happening for Flower Alley…better luck next time.

Pros: He…won the Lane’s End?

Cons: We do not have enough bandwidth.

Buzzards Bay (Mark Guidry, Jeff Mullins, $480,000, 98):
After he won the Santa Anita, I started talking about how awful he was, and that he’d disgrace the Derby just by running in it. A funny thing happened on the way to May, though…after further review, he has the potential to be a lot better than his past performances look. His Beyer figures have improved steadily, and Guidry is one of the game’s true good guys (in stark contrast to Magic Milkshake Mullins). It looks like this year’s Derby has too much speed up front for Buzzards Bay to really be a factor, though.

Pros: This colt may still have room to improve some.

Cons: There’s more than "some" improvement needed.

Sun King (Edgar Prado, Nick Zito, $402,500, 104):
Sun King flashes lots of promise, but he doesn’t seem to run his best race in the big ones. When you’re talking about the biggest big one of all, that’s not exactly what you want to hear. He dropped off my Derby radar when he won the Tampa Bay Derby at 1-20...because why would you run a serious Derby horse in the TAMPA BAY DERBY? He did rally late in the Blue Grass, though, and he’s not a complete throw out. All the same, I’m looking elsewhere.

Pros: Edgar Prado is a fantastic jockey.

Cons: Edgar Prado deserves a better horse.

Greater Good (John McKee, Bob Holthus, $391,344, 95):
Greater Good was the only horse to run down Rockport Harbor in the stretch, and this was back when Rockport Harbor looked like the real thing. The 95 Beyer he earned while doing it didn’t look like the real thing, however. From all the indicators, it looks like he’s not Greater, just Good.

Pros: Five wins in eight starts has to count for SOMETHING.

Cons: The last horse to win the Derby coming off an off-the-board finish: Thunder Gulch, 1995.

Coin Silver (Patrick Valenzuela, Todd Pletcher, $201,500, 99):
He won the Lexington in the slop to get in…and it looks like he’ll need another off track to win again. He hasn’t beaten anyone impressive, his Beyers are good (but not great), he’s picking up a new jockey…if everything falls into place, he might get a good enough trip to hit the board.

Pros: Pat V. returns from a drug-related suspension to get his first Derby mount since 1993.

Cons: Pat V. didn’t save any coke for the horse.

Noble Causeway (Gary Stevens, Nick Zito, $190,000, 100):
If Derbies were won on pedigree alone, he’d be tough. From the sire to the jockey, everything screams contender with this one. On the track, though…he hasn’t proven much, and that’s an understatement. His top achievement to date is gaining ground on High Fly in the Florida Derby stretch. Bandini’s done the same thing, over the same strip, and he looks to be a much better choice. This million-dollar horse just doesn’t seem to be the one.

Pros: Regally bred, and has raced well if not spectacularly.

Cons: Has not won a stakes, let alone a graded stakes.

Giacomo (Mike Smith, John Shirreffs, $184,300, 98):
You’re telling me a horse that really hasn’t shown any sign of improvement since his 2-year-old season can win the Derby? And that he’s going to have to circle the whole field to do it? Where do I sign up? Giacomo’s been a serious disappointment this season, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. He looks to be a high-class claimer to me.

Pros: Once ran second to Declan’s Moon.

Cons: Still eligible for non-winners of two lifetime.

Closing Argument (Cornelio Velazquez, Kiaran McLaughlin, $165,000, 98):
Best known for beating High Fly in the Holy Bull, Closing Argument is basically a speed horse with an ill-fitting name. He doesn’t have quite enough speed to get in front of this field, though…and his late kick is suspect. Also suspect, due to this, are his actual chances of winning the Derby.

Pros: He HAS beaten High Fly.

Cons: Showed nothing special in the Blue Grass.

Spanish Chestnut (Joe Bravo, Patrick Biancone, $124,000, 94):
That 94 Beyer was set in a maiden first-out win under Tony Farina, over six furlongs, at Keeneland. He’s faced many of the top horses that have been going for the Derby…the problem is, most of them have beaten him. He hasn’t run well at all since leaving California, and he doesn’t seem poised to change that any time soon.

Pros: He made it to the Derby?

Cons: Coming of back-to-back sixth-place finishes. Need I say more?

Andromeda’s Hero (undecided, Nick Zito, $115,000, 94):
This horse’s claim to fame is, well…not having a claim to fame. His two wins came in a maiden race and something purportedly called the "Sam F. Davis". Zito doesn’t need to send five racehorses to the gate on Saturday, but he will…that is, if you can call Andromeda’s Hero a racehorse.

Pros: He has four legs.

Cons: They don’t move very quickly.

Sort It Out (Brice Blanc, Bob Baffert, $65,000, 96):
This entry is clearly a joke, fueled by Baffert’s desire to stand next to someone wearing a silly hat on Saturday. Next, please.

Don’t Get Mad (Tyler Baze, Ron Ellis, $127,800, 98):
Nobody, but nobody, runs their horse in the Derby Trial as an actual trial for the Derby. When I saw his name on the entry list, I thought that he was as good as a throw out. But…but…did you see that stretch run? The Trial was a fine-looking performance. I don’t know that I trust him looping a big field of 20 or so horses, though…I’m looking elsewhere.

Pros: Did you SEE the Trial stretch run?

Cons: Did you see his other races?

Going Wild (undecided, D. Wayne Lukas, $57,250, 104):
Do you realize what it means when a horse has no jockey announced less than a week before the Derby? It means that no jockey wants to waste their time taking the mount, because he has no chance whatsoever of doing them any good at all. Keep that in mind when you head to the windows.

Greeley’s Galaxy (Kent Desormeaux, Warren Stute, $300,000*, 106):
There are a bunch of reasons why he "can’t win": No horse has won in quite some time that was unraced at two, 83-year-old trainer Warren Stute was actually at the first Derby (or so it seems), and the fact that he is on the outside looking in, since the owner NEVER BOTHERED TO NOMINATE HIM TO THE TRIPLE CROWN. Said owner (B. Wayne Hughes) is looking at a $200,000 fee if he does want to enter Greeley’s Galaxy, AND one of the above horses would have to scratch out of the field to make room. I think both of these things will happen, and Greeley’s Galaxy is going to put on a good show.

Pros: Shows an excellent form cycle, with higher Beyer Speed Figures in every race. If he hasn’t topped out yet, he’s dangerous.

Cons: He hasn’t really beaten anyone, and did I mention that he was unraced at two?

That wraps it up for the capsules - Tripp Wright for Pregame.com

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